Since the internet enables people to copy and transfer files with virtually no cost, the supply of a media file is essentially infinite and will be for the foreseeable future since the internet is not going anywhere. According the laws of supply and demand, when something has infinite supply, its price drops to zero and thus has no value. So in a sense, people are downloading music for free because, according to economics, it has no value. Some might protest and argue “Hey you’re wrong, my band XYZ produces very valuable music! Don’t say their music has no value” and you’d be partly correct. However its not the actual music itself that has economic value. Rather, it’s the artist’s raw talent and ability to write and play music that has value. The talent needed to write a new song is in limited supply, and therefore has great value, but once a song has been written, the end result has no value since it can be copied infinitely many times (for all practical purposes).
So what does this mean for the future of digital media in the long term? I think it means we will eventually move to a model where people pay to make use of the artist’s talent, rather than for the music itself. This is already the case for live performances – people pay good money to go watch musicians play in front of a live audience, even though they often already own copies of all the music that the artists play at these events. As for other forms of making money, I expect it to move to a more contract-based model, where people pay money for artists to make a particular song for them. So for example if you have a great idea for an awesome apocalyptic song in your head, you could hire a musician and pay them like 5 thousand dollars to have them make a song to your specifications. This is sort of all ready the case for music for TV shows and commercials, where companies pay musicians to make a certain piece of music for them. That said, artists will still be able to write the music they want to write, though it just might not be as lucrative as writing music for other people.




